Unfortunately,
this feeling of security is premature. While the electricity crisis in
the West has abated for now, and the Northeast has recovered from the
largest blackout in the nationıs history, the crisis has by no means subsided.
Although adequate generation capacity currently exists to meet much of
the nationıs short-term electric needs, lingering regulatory and market
uncertainty have stifled investments in necessary energy infrastructure,
including generation facilities. New power shortages in the next several
years are thus a likely prospect.
This outlook on the power market is further bolstered by studies within
the last year indicating that current natural gas supplies will be unable
to fulfill future demand. North America is experiencing a production decline
while demand continues to grow. An additional byproduct of this situation
is that wellhead gas prices have not only become more volatile, they have
almost tripled during the past decade.
In testimony last summer to the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Federal
Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said:"Todayıs tight natural gas markets
have been a long time in coming, and futures prices suggest that we are
not apt to return to earlier periods of relative abundance and low prices
anytime soon."
Chairman Greenspanıs comments, coupled with recent record prices, finally
have people focusing on the fact that our nation is running short of natural
gas. Solving the problem requires adjustments to our attitudes on importing
natural gas and revamping of our domestic transmission systems, which
are critical to distributing these new gas supplies.
We must use our limited resources carefully, and rethink our strategy
on foreign supplies. Developing new domestic supplies, from the Rocky
Mountains, shale, biogas and synthetic sources is paramount to meeting
our growing demand over the next decade. But this will not be enough.
A regulatory structure must provide adequate certainty and incentives
to support financing, issuance of regulatory approvals and construction
of importation facilities.
Regulators must adopt policies that govern interconnections between natural
gas utilities and new and diverse sources of natural gas that are made
for economic, as opposed to purely physical reliability purposes, among
other things. It must also support additions to pipeline transmission
systems.
Here enters LNG.What is being touted by many as the main solution to our
nation's energy challenges, liquefied natural gas is one of many new sources
that must be considered as we look at the future of the North American
energy market.
LNG has several unique properties that make it attractive: First, LNG
represents our most viable long-term solution for supply at reasonable
prices. Second, every country with stranded gas supplies would like to
have a share of the North American marketplace, the largest gas market
in the world. Third, unlike many other parties and interests whose wants
are reflected in our nationıs stalled energy legislation, the LNG industry
is not asking for loan guarantees, floor prices or subsidies. We are willing
to take our chances and make our bets in the marketplace.We are very encouraged
by the recent FERC action that does not require cost-based regulation
for new on-shore LNG facilities. This is certainly a step in the right
direction.
However, we must consider that major new LNG supplies are unlikely to
reach North America until 2007, when several new receipt terminals are
expected to be operational, including two by Sempra Energy. The National
Petroleum Council projects that LNG imports could grow to become 10 percent
to 15 percent of the U.S. natural gas supply by 2020ıas opposed to about
2 percent currently. So while LNG is commanding a lot of attention, itıs
important to emphasize that market success, particularly as we await the
arrival of LNG, depends on securing a diverse set of supply sources. Diversifying
our supply base will create heightened competitive pressure on natural
gas prices, and also protect us from threats of shortages, regulatory
delay or weather-induced demand and price spikes.
This is important. Expedited siting and federal regulation that would
streamline the permitting and development process is critical. Another
welcome development would involve the updating of existing gas interchangeability
standards. There are still policy challenges confronting the importation
of LNG that we must address.
We are charting a new course in the energy history of our nation. Let
us resolve to never again play catch up with our nation's energy demands
and make customers guess whether there will be light when they flip the
switch.
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